The Soccer Gods owe us an apology. France vs. Spain, the two teams with the best odds of winning the tournament — the reigning World Cup finalists against the reigning European champions — is happening Tuesday in Dallas, and it’s a semifinal. This is the game the whole world has been waiting to see, arriving one round too soon.
Let’s be honest about recent form: France has the upper hand, and it isn’t as close as we thought it was two months ago.
Didier Deschamps’ side has been an impenetrable machine. Five multi-goal wins in six matches, a third consecutive semifinal (only Germany and Brazil have ever done that), and a 2-0 dismantling of Morocco in Boston that never once felt in doubt.
Kylian Mbappé missed a penalty in that game, his first failed spot kick for France since Euro 2020, shrugged, scored anyway, then assisted Ousmane Dembélé six minutes later. That’s the tournament he’s having. When the mistakes turn into brilliance, the rest of the field is playing for second.
(Photo by Hu Xingyu/Xinhua via Getty Images)
And what about the history aspect? Mbappé sits on 20 career World Cup goals, one behind Lionel Messi’s all-time record of 21 — a record Messi has been extending in real time. Mbappé has scored in every knockout game France has played. His 12 career knockout-stage goals are already a record on their own. He could equal or pass the greatest scoring mark in World Cup history on Tuesday, against Spain, with a final on the line. It’s a scriptwriter’s dream.
Spain, meanwhile, did not have a cakewalk against Belgium. Luis de la Fuente’s team dominated the ball in Los Angeles — 68% possession, more than two expected goals to Belgium’s 0.38 — and still needed an 88th-minute gift to survive. Charles De Ketelaere’s header just before halftime was the first goal Spain had conceded all summer, snapping a record 650-minute World Cup scoreless streak.
Then Thibaut Courtois limped off in tears, backup Senne Lammens spilled a routine save, and Mikel Merino, the match-winner against Portugal, did it again and buried the rebound. La Roja are in their first semifinal since 2010, riding a 36-game unbeaten run that sits one short of Italy’s all-time record of 37. Impressive numbers, eh? But Fabián Ruiz’s opener aside, this was a team struggling to turn possession into goals or excitement.
Which brings us to Lamine Yamal
(Photo by Ulrik Pedersen/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
The 18-year-old tore his hamstring scoring a penalty against Celta Vigo in April, missed the rest of Barcelona’s title run, and arrived at this World Cup racing against the calendar. He’s played six matches, the most ever by a player 18 or under at a World Cup, and he’s had his moments, testing Courtois and Lammens repeatedly on Friday.
But the full Euro 2024 version, the kid who bent entire defenses sideways? We’ve seen flashes, that’s about it. Whether that’s rust, the hamstring, or the natural caution of a teenager managing his own body, Spain needs him at 100% on Tuesday. The evidence says he isn’t there.
(Photo by ETIENNE LAURENT / AFP via Getty Images)
That’s the tension in this game. Spain will have the ball (they always have the ball) and France will wait, coiled, with Mbappé and Dembélé ready to turn one loose touch into a sprint at goal. Michael Olise, quietly the tournament’s best creator with five assists, will find them. Ask Morocco how that ends. Spain’s control is real, but control without conversion against this France team is just a longer way to lose.
One more thing, because the Soccer Gods clearly have a sense of the occasion: Tuesday is July 14. France will play for a place in the World Cup final on Bastille Day.
Storm the castle or defend it. Either way, don’t blink.
